National Fuel Gas Stock Performance

NFG Stock  USD 83.75  0.25  0.30%   
National Fuel has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.11, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Fuel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Fuel is expected to be smaller as well. National Fuel Gas right now secures a risk of 1.07%. Please verify National Fuel Gas expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to decide if National Fuel Gas will be following its current price movements.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in National Fuel Gas are ranked lower than 6 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly stable technical and fundamental indicators, National Fuel is not utilizing all of its potentials. The recent stock price disturbance, may contribute to mid-run losses for the stockholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(0.30)
Five Day Return
1.9
Year To Date Return
2.06
Ten Year Return
84.39
All Time Return
2.3 K
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0255
Payout Ratio
0.2363
Last Split Factor
2:1
Forward Dividend Rate
2.14
Dividend Date
2026-01-15
1
Does National Fuel Gas Still Offer Value After a 30 percent Year-to-Date Surge in 2025
11/12/2025
2
Acquisition by David Smith of 103 shares of National Fuel subject to Rule 16b-3
11/14/2025
3
Rhumbline Advisers Lowers Stock Holdings in National Fuel Gas Company NFG
11/28/2025
4
Disposition of 9687 shares by David Bauer of National Fuel subject to Rule 16b-3
12/05/2025
5
Disposition of 211 shares by Lee Hartz of National Fuel at 82.28 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/09/2025
6
National Fuel Gas Revisiting Valuation After a Strong MultiYear Share Price Run
12/15/2025
7
10 Dividend Stocks For Conservative Retirement Income
12/26/2025
8
Acquisition by David Anderson of 541 shares of National Fuel subject to Rule 16b-3
01/02/2026
9
Cactus Soars 5.7 percent Is Further Upside Left in the Stock
01/06/2026
10
National Fuel Schedules First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call
01/13/2026
 
National Fuel dividend paid on 15th of January 2026
01/15/2026
12
Generating income This natural gas stock has paid a dividend for more than a century
01/20/2026
13
National Fuel Gas Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday
01/27/2026
14
A Look At National Fuel Gas Valuation As Investors Await Upcoming Earnings And Guidance
01/28/2026
15
National Fuel Gas EPS Rebound Reinforces Bullish Valuation Narrative
01/30/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow38.2 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-891.7 M

National Fuel Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  7,935  in National Fuel Gas on November 3, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  440.00  from holding National Fuel Gas or generate 5.55% return on investment over 90 days. National Fuel Gas is generating 0.0927% of daily returns assuming volatility of 1.0676% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 9% of stocks are less volatile than National, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon National Fuel is expected to generate 1.44 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.44 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.09 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

National Fuel Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 83.75 90 days 83.75 
about 1.48
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Fuel to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.48 (This National Fuel Gas probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon National Fuel has a beta of 0.11. This indicates as returns on the market go up, National Fuel average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Fuel Gas will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Fuel Gas has an alpha of 0.0462, implying that it can generate a 0.0462 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   National Fuel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National Fuel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Fuel Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
82.4983.5684.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.3890.2791.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
83.9885.0586.12
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
89.4898.33109.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Fuel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Fuel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Fuel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Fuel Gas.

National Fuel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Fuel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Fuel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Fuel Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Fuel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.11
σ
Overall volatility
1.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

National Fuel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Fuel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Fuel Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Fuel Gas has 2.83 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.52, which is OK given its current industry classification. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable National to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns.
National Fuel Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of January 2026 National Fuel paid $ 0.535 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: National Fuel Gas EPS Rebound Reinforces Bullish Valuation Narrative

National Fuel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Fuel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Fuel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding91.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments43.2 M

National Fuel Fundamentals Growth

National Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of National Fuel, and National Fuel fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on National Stock performance.

About National Fuel Performance

By analyzing National Fuel's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into National Fuel's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if National Fuel has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if National Fuel has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 48.86  40.54 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.07  0.04 
Return On Capital Employed 0.12  0.09 
Return On Assets 0.07  0.04 
Return On Equity 0.19  0.12 

Things to note about National Fuel Gas performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about National Fuel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for National Fuel Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Fuel Gas has 2.83 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.52, which is OK given its current industry classification. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable National to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns.
National Fuel Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of January 2026 National Fuel paid $ 0.535 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: National Fuel Gas EPS Rebound Reinforces Bullish Valuation Narrative
Evaluating National Fuel's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate National Fuel's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing National Fuel's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether National Fuel's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining National Fuel's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating National Fuel's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of National Fuel's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of National Fuel's stock. These opinions can provide insight into National Fuel's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating National Fuel's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact National Fuel's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis

When running National Fuel's price analysis, check to measure National Fuel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Fuel is operating at the current time. Most of National Fuel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Fuel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Fuel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Fuel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk